Four straight months of improvements provide promising forecast for ’10

Market statistics for the last month of 2009 gave Ken Hotard a boost of confidence in his prediction that the market will begin improving in the second half of 2010.

“They look very good,” says Hotard, senior vice president of public affairs for the Boulder Area Realtor Association. “This is our fourth consecutive month to see gains compared with the same months last year.”

In December, 211 single-family homes sold, compared with 196 in December 2008, while 73 condos and townhomes sold last month compared with 63 in December 2008. In all, 3,069 single-family homes sold from Dec. 1, 2008, through Nov. 30, 2009, while 3,606 sold in the same period the year before. And 1,193 attached units sold in the last year compared with 1,345 the previous year.

Hotard says that while median and average sales prices continue to drop in many Boulder communities, the strongest market is that with homes priced in the middle, with the weak end being the upper-end homes. However, that market is stabilizing and improving.

“When I look at the quarterly data, I’m encouraged to note that when I compare the fourth quarter of ’09 with the fourth quarter of ’08 in single-family sales, I see a nearly 24 percent increase in sales volume and a 28 percent increase in sales volume in condo and townhomes," Hotard says. “Both of those numbers are encouraging considering what a poor fourth quarter we had in 2008.”

Brokerages are also reporting that home showings and other real estate activity has increased substantially in the New Year, so Hotard says he is expecting strong statistics for January. One Boulder office in particular had 180 showings on a Saturday in January - the most it had had on one day since 2007.

“I’m encouraged going forward,” he says. “I believe the second half of this year will tell us that we have moved beyond the recession and entered sustainable market growth, albeit modest. Credit continues to be an issue, particularly on the higher end, as does job growth.”

Interest rates are still quite low, but the inventory of homes for sale needs to increase to provide competition and selection, Hotard notes.