Stats for year, May surprise & impress; market will remain flat for summer

For the first time in at least two or three years, the number of homes sold year-over-year in Boulder County has improved.

From May 1, 2009, through April 30, 2010, 3,321 single-family Boulder homes sold, compared with 3,236 during the previous year – about a 3 percent increase. And 1,319 condos and townhomes sold during the same time, compared with 1,233 the year before – a nearly 7 percent improvement.

"It's certainly been a couple of years since we've seen that," says Ken Hotard, senior vice president of public affairs for the Boulder Area Realtor Association. "The month of May actually exceeded my expectations."

Hotard says he expected sales to remain strong in May, thanks to people trying to get in under the federal tax credit for first-time and move-up buyers and the amount of activity he saw in April. But even he was pleasantly surprised with just how many homes sold last month.

In May alone, 362 single-family homes sold, a 45 percent jump compared with the 249 that sold in May 2009. And 134 townhomes and condos sold in May, about a 40 percent increase from the 96 that sold in May the year before.

"The year-to-year improvements are very encouraging indeed," Hotard says. "It’s been a long time since we’ve seen those numbers improve."

Though he hesitates to rain on anyone's parade, Hotard says it won't be all sunshine and rainbows the remainder of the year.

"There are a lot of challenges ahead," he says. "We're just beginning to see the indications of potential job growth, which will be a key to sustaining strong home sales through the balance of the year."

People are considering more than just their own financial situation when looking at buying a home, Hotard says. They are concerned about what's happening in the economy and it's important to them that when they buy a house, that the demand is sufficient to maintain or increase home values. If it isn't, they are less likely to buy, he says.

"If we want to see home prices appreciate, we will have to look for job growth," he says. "We don't see it. Based on the aggregate of Colorado and regional economists, we don't see sufficient job growth that will result in substantial change in prices up or down – just enough to keep prices stable and predictable."

A healthy amount of homes for sale and hard-working Realtors is helping keep the market stable, but with the end of the tax credit – homes that went under contract by the end of April must close by the end of June – Hotard predicts a "modest pull-back" in June. However, he still expects that June's activity will be an improvement over last year's.

"We've had a couple of good strong months, comparatively," he says. "These look like normal numbers, or at least approaching normal. The balance of the summer will be relatively flat."