Don’t be deceived by sales stats; 2010 ended on a positive note

Comparing Boulder County communities’ real estate sales statistics for November with the numbers from a year ago or even October might send some into a panic.

But if compared with a year with similar circumstances – 2008, specifically – 2010 actually had strong end, according to Ken Hotard, Boulder Area Realtor Association senior vice president of public affairs.

Only 195 single-family homes and 66 condos/townhomes sold in Boulder communities in November, compared with the 252 single-family homes and 84 townhomes that sold in November 2009.

However, Hotard points out that at this time last year, people were under the impression that the homebuyer tax credit was set to expire at the end of the year. It’s a much more accurate comparison to look at November 2008, when homebuyers had no tax credit to take advantage of by a certain time. Then, like now, the bottom fell out of the housing market.

In November 2008, 149 single-family homes sold and 50 condos/townhomes sold. In comparison, this November’s sales are an improvement, he says.

Another positive fact is the fact that all but two Boulder-area markets – Boulder and the plains – saw increases in average home sales prices ranging between 1.1 percent and 15.3 percent, and all but three – Boulder, the plains and Lafayette – saw increases in the median sales price.

“Prices are holding up extremely well,” Hotard says. “We’re still working on balanced inventories of homes for sale, resulting in healthy absorption rates in most market areas.

Prices and the increasing number of home sales compared with November 2008 paint a picture of an improving market, he adds. The area has a balanced absorption rate, it isn’t over-supplied with inventory and more jobs are coming, he says.

Some of the recent announcements regarding potential job growth include:

• Loveland-based Abound Solar, which has a 200-person manufacturing plant near Longmont, closed on a $400 million federal loan, which will allow the maker of thin-film solar panels to ramp up production and hire 200 more employees in Colorado within the next two years, according to the Boulder Daily Camera. The majority of those new hires will work at the Longmont photovoltaic array manufacturing facility. Abound currently has 350 employees in Colorado.

• Colorado high-tech firms are getting a boost from NASA to speed up manufacturing in hopes of providing 10,000 new jobs over the next five years. The new program will promote manufacturing of new products like thin film solar cells developed in Colorado. An agreement with the Colorado Association for Manufacturing and Technology will help build a technology park somewhere between Loveland and Boulder.

Hotard called the announcements “very positive” and “a great fit for this area in terms of the University of Colorado, all the federal laboratories and the new energy economy.”

He adds, “This is the kind of news that has the ability to trigger consistent market expansion and growth we have been waiting for. People should be feeling relatively good, looking to celebrate a joyful holiday season and launch very positively into the New Year.”

While it’s not clear exactly what steps Congress will take to help the economy over the next year or two other than not raise taxes, Hotard says, consumers should have a bit more money to spend and may be more willing to make longer term investments such as buying a home.

“We’re starting to see more positive economic news setting up for a good end to 2010 and we should be in relatively good shape going into 2011, with the expectation of a healthy market going forward,” he says.