January’s real estate stats trigger thoughts of recovery

If January’s real estate market is any reflection of how 2011 will proceed, then the forecast for Boulder County is “recovery.”

“I’m pretty pleased with the continued positive direction of the market, given that this is traditionally a slow time,” says Ken Hotard, senior vice president of public affairs for the Boulder Area Realtor Association.

One hundred thirty-nine single-family homes sold in Boulder County in January, compared with 127 sales in January 2010. Longmont saw had the most homes sell as well as the biggest increase in sales, with 41 homes selling in January compared with only 30 a year ago – a nearly 37 percent increase.

But it wasn’t only the sales volume that improved in the single-family market: average and median home prices were up in every market except in the mountains, where the average price of homes dipped slightly, and Lafayette, where the median home price fell a bit.

Louisville had the strongest gain of median and average sale prices, with both increasing more than 11 percent.

“The single-family market consistently shows its strength here in both pricing and sales volume growth,” Hotard says. “In contrast, the condo/townhome market is currently weak on the pricing side of the market.”

Boulder County saw 59 condos/townhomes sell in January 2010, while 46 sold in the same month last year. But several communities in the Boulder market saw average and/or median sale prices decline in January – including Superior’s 17.9 percent average price dip – compared with a year ago.

“It’s still struggling and I believe it is mostly related to tight credit, and demand is simply not strong enough to support the supply that is in the market right now,” Hotard says.

Although the economy remains shaky, developers are beginning to show their confidence in the direction of the market by exploring opportunities in the Boulder County market area, Hotard says.

“I’m encouraged by the consistent direction of the market,” he says. “If this kind of strength continues and goes on into the spring, it could mark the turn for housing recovery within our market area and potentially along the Front Range of Colorado.”

The Boulder market is showing signs of recovery because it didn’t have as far to fall into the recession as other areas, Hotard explains: it didn’t have double-digit home price appreciation; it has had lower foreclosure rates; and its job losses haven’t been as severe as other communities’.

“We never had the big run-up here,” he says, noting home sales volume and credit availability have been the Boulder area market’s “hang-ups.”

But the credit strings are beginning to loosen – though some big issues still need resolved – and buyers are more willing to get into a more stable market, Hotard says.

“I think buyers in general are more encouraged and enthusiastic about the future of the residential marketplace, and they don’t want to lose out on today’s competitive pricing and historically low interest rates,” he says.