After another foreclosure bubble from Alt-A loans and Option ARMs resetting in 2010 and 2011, and with unemployment rates still rising, a sustained, healthy stretch of increasing sales, values and homeownership rates will come, according to Dave Lininger, RE/MAX International chairman and co-founder. But this upswing won't be built on questionable lending practices, overextended buyers or insane debt-to-income ratios. Instead, a combination of pent-up demand and demographics – with the youngest group of adults, Generation Y, providing much of the spark – will serve as the foundation.
Lininger describes the generation born between 1980 and 1995 – also known as the "millennials" or "echo boomers" – like “a pig in a python.” Now aged 14 to 29, they comprise a block of 74 million potential buyers – nearly as many as the 80 million baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964. He says considering the influence the boomers have had on virtually every aspect of society over the past 40 years, including the housing industry, he finds it fascinating to anticipate the impact of another wave that's just as massive.
The oldest members of Gen Y are approaching the average age of first-time homebuyers – the National Association of Home Builders puts it at 33 – and many of them are already taking advantage of attractive buying conditions. They’re moving through the household formation years of 25-44 and will soon replace Generation X (the 48 million people born between 1965 and 1979) as the primary first-timer group between 29 and 33. They will do so in much greater number.
The children of boomers, Gen Y is on the verge of becoming the major consumer force, although they’re not as well off as their parents were at their age, Lininger says. Despite being burdened by steep college loans, higher prices for everyday goods and an uncertain job market, they’re extremely confident, mobile and positive about their futures. Many are marrying earlier, without large nest eggs, and others see moving back home as a prudent way to save some money and wait out the economic turbulence.
Their expectations in housing are different, too. Their lifestyles are active, urban and social, so they generally favor smaller homes near recreation, restaurants and friends. Many would just as soon live in a townhouse or condo as in a large single-family home, as mowing the yard is not what they want to be doing on a Saturday afternoon. And though some embrace the charm of older homes, most prefer newer buildings filled with the technology and modern amenities with which they grew up.
Despite the current lack of buyer interest, a reservoir of pent-up demand is building in every age group: Gen Y couples who are content with renting or living with parents until their careers get going and their incomes cover their lifestyle expenses with something left over; Gen X families who have outgrown their homes but are delaying moves because of employment concerns and the tough economic times; boomers who no longer need five bedrooms but are hunkered down and postponing their downsizing or relocation plans, Lininger says. Eventually – those of us at RE/MAX International think it will be in four years or so – they’ll all feel secure enough to take the next step. Sales will rise and our industry will return to normal, although it will be a new, different normal than before. Regardless, we still face many challenges before members of Gen Y fully flex their buying muscles and help put housing back on track.
Like Boomers, 74 million-strong Gen Y will give housing market much-needed boost
New (but experienced) dentist in town!
When Chris Chamberlin graduated Ohio State Dental School and was selected to do an advanced dental residency program in Denver, he never planned to stay in Colorado. He never planned to practice dentistry in Boulder, and he didn't plan on meeting his wife, Boulder native Janet Birmingham - born when Boulder had 19,000 residents. Except for the four years she spent getting her college degree in Fort Collins, Janet intended to live out her life in the most beautiful town (Boulder - where else) in the most beautiful state in the country.
Upon completing his residency at Denver Health, Dr. Chamberlin headed back to his hometown of Toledo, Ohio. He purchased an existing dental practice in a Toledo suburb (Maumee) and started off on his exciting new career in dentistry in 1977.
In 1981 he convinced Janet to join him in Ohio, marry him and have his children – an offer she (fortunately for Dr. Chamberlin) did not refuse. However, Dr. Chamberlin had to fulfill one requirement for his wife: he had to take the dental boards and be licensed to practice dentistry in Colorado. Janet was certain that he was going to practice dentistry in Boulder one day.
For 25 years the couple worked together building a successful dental practice and raising two boys. Because Janet’s family was in Boulder, they made many trips back to visit and enjoy Colorado’s beautiful mountains.
In 2006, the Chamberlins made one of the biggest decisions in their lives. They decided to move to Boulder (or as Janet would say, move “back home”). Our firstborn son had just graduated Ohio State University and was settling down in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Our second son had just graduated high school and wanted to start college at the University of Colorado at Boulder. The family packed up its belongings (including three cats) accumulated over 25 years and headed “home.”
One of the first people the Chamberlins met when they arrived was their ReMax of Boulder agent. He managed to do the impossible – find the family a relatively new condo, just minutes away from Janet’s mother, with gorgeous views of the Flatirons and the Front Range, for a price within their budget.
"I opened the door to my new Boulder dental practice in January 2007," Dr. Chamberlin says. "While we are working hard to get my name and experience out in the Boulder community, I am truly enjoying practicing dentistry in Colorado. When we are not working, we are enjoying all that Colorado has to offer in outdoor activities."
Find out more about Dr. Chamberlin and his dental practice at www.DrChamberlin.com. Make sure to check out his “Special Offers” to assist patients in keeping up with their oral health during this downturn in the economy. "I love seeing new patients with whom I can share my years of dental experience as well as my love of this beautiful state that Janet and I now have the privilege of living and working in and calling “home."
Boulder Tops Colorado Cities for 1st Quarter Appreciation rates
With a one-year appreciation rate of 1.99 percent, Boulder was the highest-ranked Colorado city on the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s listing of home appreciation rates for 294 metropolitans in the nation. Boulder came in twenty-third for the first quarter of 2009, while Denver-Aurora-Broomfield’s one-year appreciation rate of 0.80% came in at sixty-fourth and Fort Collins-Loveland’s rate of -0.12 percent was ranked ninety-third.
Though none of Colorado’s eight metros ranked made the top 20, they also did not land in the bottom 20 metros, either. Colorado Springs was the lowest-ranked Colorado metro at one-hundred and fifty-third; it had a one-year appreciation rate of -1.70 percent.
The Texas metro of Corpus Christie had the highest appreciation rate in the nation – 4.12 percent – and three other Texas metros made the top 20. Indiana, South Carolina, Oklahoma and Louisiana also had more than one representative in the top 20. California and Florida dominated the bottom 20 list, with Nevada and Arizona with one representative each making the list. Merced, Calif., whose home prices depreciated 37.80 percent from the first quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009, pulled up the rear of the 294 metros.
Here’s a look at how Colorado’s and its eight metros’ home-price appreciation rates performed compared with the rest of the nation:
Fall Real Estate Conference Speakers
November 19, 2009 is the date for Re/Max of Boulder's Fall Real Estate Conference. Here's just a teaser on the speakers - more will follow. But Save the date! Executive Vice President, Retail National Sales Manager Brad attended the University of Colorado and started his career in Boulder as a loan officer in 1983. Drawing on his 28 years of mortgage lending and banking business experience, Blackwell focuses on capturing opportunities to strengthen Wells Fargo Home Mortgage’s retail market share and market profitability within all 50 states. Blackwell was named executive vice president, retail national sales manager in June 2004 after serving three years as a senior vice president, national sales manager for Wells Fargo Home Mortgage’s Pacific Markets. He led efforts to double Wells Fargo’s retail share on the West Coast. Blackwell is responsible for leading WFHM’s Distributed Retail sales team of more than 10,000 home mortgage consultants who originate residential mortgage loans in more than 800 stores throughout the country. The Distributed Retail sales team strives to increase market share using WFHM’s innovative lines of prime, subprime,renovation,reverse, builder and private mortgage banking products and programs.FEATURING:
Paul C. Bishop, Ph.D.
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORSPaul Bishop is the Managing Director of Real Estate Research at the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. Dr. Bishop leads the Research Division’s survey and market research activities including analysis of real estate business and policy issues. 
Brad Blackwell
Delayed spring activity could mean improved summer, fall market
The Boulder area real estate market is moving at an “anemic pace,” but it is improving modestly from month to month, according to Ken Hotard, senior vice president of public affairs for the Boulder Area Realtor Association.
Nationally, home sales increased 2.4 percent from April to May. “That’s similar to what we’re seeing,” he says.
The Boulder market is also experiencing modest growth in inventory of homes month over month, but Hotard says he expects the peak in inventory and sales that normally comes in April or May to not arrive until July. The late arrival of that cycle could equate to a better fall market.
The volume of single-family home sales from May 1, 2008, and April 30, 2009, is down between 11 percent and nearly 40 percent in every Boulder community compared with the previous year, and the volume of multifamily sales is down between 9 percent and 42 percent. But Realtors are reporting more buyer activity and an increase of homes under contract, Hotard says. Next month’s statistics should show whether that activity and contracts result in more closings.
Several markets experienced an increase in average and median home prices – including a 9.4 percent increase in median price and a 3.4 percent increase in average price in Broomfield – in May, but some had significant declines. Hotard attributes the latter to what’s selling – more lower-priced properties – versus the value of real estate across the market. And with a lack of lending availability, especially of competitive jumbo loan products, that trend is likely to continue.
In the communities where prices are improving, such as Broomfield, Boulder and Superior, it’s a result of a combination of price point, location and product, Hotard says. For instance, Broomfield has a supply of newer houses priced appropriately for this market, “so it’s no wonder you’re seeing some good strength there,” he says.
“It’s rational and realistic to say that this continues to be a difficult market,” Hotard says, adding that “hopefully it’s setting up to be a productive fall season.”
With moderately priced housing and an $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, he is optimistic that that is exactly what will happen.
Denver ranked 3rd among fittest cities in America
Denver residents may not have the parks and open space other cities do, but apparently that doesn’t stop its residents from getting out and active, making them among the fittest people in the nation, according to the American Fitness Index.
Colorado’s capital ranked third in its report of the 45 fittest cities in the nation, scoring 71.6 on its scale. Denver was noted for its lower percent of unemployed population, lower percent of residents with disabilities and a higher percent of folks who are at least moderately physically active. Its challenges are a lower percent of city land area as parkland, fewer acres of parkland per capita and fewer farmers’ markets per capita.
The AFI measures each city’s performance on 30 indicators, including acres of parkland, death rate from cardiovascular disease, number of primary care physicians per capita and the percent of residents who bicycle or walk to work. The metrics were gathered from government and nonprofit organizations.
Topping the list was Washington, D.C. Its residents’ access to farmers’ markets, with 13 markets per 1 million residents compared with the national average of 11, as well as a lower percentage of smokers, diabetics and with 90 percent of its residents having health insurance (the national average is 86 percent) all helped the nation’s capital take the title of fittest.
Detroit, Mich.; Oklahoma City, Okla.; and Birmingham, Ala., performed poorly in the study, struggling in measures such as eating less than five or more fruits and vegetables a day, having a high percentage of residents with heart disease, or having more residents who suffer from poor mental health one or more days a year.
Here are the top five fittest cities in the nation, according to the AFI:
1. Washington, D.C.
2. Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.
3. Denver, Colo.
4. Boston, Mass.
5. San Francisco, Calif.
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